The Bank of England is planning to cut its benchmark interest rate to zero for the first time in history, according to estimates by Morgan Stanley. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% at its meeting on Thursday, as a response to the fall in the value of the pound and the declining outlook for economic growth. This would constitute the first change in policy since 2009, which saw interest rates fall to 0.5% during the global financial crisis. Analysts, including those at Capital Economics, have suggested that rates could fall as low as -0.5% next year. However, others have argued that such reductions are unlikely since they may adversely affect the stability of bank profits and the structure of the economy.
Meanwhile, Moody’s has suggested that the UK’s triple-A credit rating could be at risk following the Brexit vote if the economy is unable to cope with the potential turbulence of the exit process. Moody’s has maintained its Aa1 rating for the UK for the time being, confirming the country’s stable outlook. However, it notes that Brexit could lead to a “protracted period of uncertainty” that could result in “larger macroeconomic dislocations”. Credit rating agency, Fitch, recently also reaffirmed its own AA rating for the UK in response to the Brexit, but warned that the decision could lead to a slowdown in economic growth.
In separate news, Lloyds’ conducted a Brexit-related survey of 200 company bosses in July; 43% of respondents are considering freezing recruitment following the vote, while 80% believe that Brexit will take a toll on the UK economy in the long term.
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