The San Diego Padres just can’t turn it on. They have remained within striking distance in the National League wild card race, but they always needed an eight-game winning streak or a 12-3 burst in a 15-game sequence to make themselves a credible wild card contender. They have not been able to get hot and stay hot. The Padres are 65-74 through 139 games. They have 23 games left, and they need to win 19 of them to have a realistic chance of competing for a playoff berth at the end of the season, which has fewer than four weeks remaining.
If the Padres go 19-4 in their last 23, they would finish with an 84-78 record. Given that the current teams tied for the third National League wild card are four games over .500, the Padres — with a record which is six games over the break-even mark — would conceivably have a shot. If, however, San Diego goes “only” 17-6, it would finish 82-80. The four teams San Diego is chasing right now — Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco — are separated by one game. Arizona and Cincy are four over .500, Miami three, and San Francisco two. The 6.5-game deficit the Padres face is notable, but the real problem is that the Padres have to vault past all four teams to make the playoffs. If they climb past three but not four, they’re not going to make it unless the Chicago Cubs (currently holding the No. 2 wild card spot) completely collapse.
San Diego basically can’t lose any games the rest of the way. Winning two of every three won’t be nearly good enough.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Padres Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+162)
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-196)
Over: 9 (-112)
Under: 9 (-108)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Padres
For the inside story on the 24 people banned from MLB, listen below:
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia (Phillies) / MLB (Padres) / MLB Extra Innings
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT
*Watch Phillies-Padres LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies have been mashing the ball the past month. They were not a good team in April and May, but they came alive in June, much as they did in 2022. In August, this team really caught fire, and that’s because Trea Turner, the expensive offseason acquisition who had so profoundly struggled through July of this season, finally woke up and started hitting homers. Turner joined the charge with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and the Phillies’ other mashers. This lineup looks ready to be a factor in October again. Philadelphia won the first game of this series on Monday in San Diego, 9-7. The Phillies looked very comfortable at the plate against mediocre San Diego pitching. There’s no reason Philadelphia can’t replicate this formula in the second game of this series.
Philadelphia sends Michael Lorenzen to the mound. He has struggled with the Phils, but he has also thrown a no-hitter. If the no-hit version of Lorenzen shows up, the Phillies become a huge favorite.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
After losing on Monday, the Padres will be even more desperate to beat the Phillies on Tuesday. If you have followed the Padres throughout the course of their hugely disappointing season, you will notice that in a lot of their home series at Petco Park in 2023, they alternate wins and losses. They haven’t won a lot of back-to-back games, and they haven’t lost a large number of back-to-back games. Since the Padres lost on Monday, they’re a better bet on Tuesday. It’s weird, but that’s how this team has often functioned this year.
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick
Betting on Padre games remains complicated and tricky. Pass on this one.
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5
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