India is on track to surpass China and become the world’s most populous nation by mid-2023, according to data from the United Nations. India is projected to have an estimated 1.4286 billion people, surpassing China’s estimated 1.4257 billion people. While both countries have more than 1.4 billion people, India’s population growth has been driven by a younger population and higher fertility rates, while China’s aging population has seen a decrease in its fertility rate. India’s continued population growth will have social and economic consequences, with experts warning that it could become a demographic liability if the growing number of young people are not adequately employed. This shift in population dynamics was not expected to happen until later in the decade, but a drop in China’s fertility rate has sped up the timeline. Nevertheless, demographic limits make it impossible to predict an exact date for India to surpass China in population size.
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